The West Must Steppe Up - CAFA From the Source

The current stamp of Kazakhstan showcases not only President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but the persistence of the Russian language over Kazakh life. Photo courtesy of The Post of Kazakhstan.

Though overshadowed in Western foreign policy spaces, Kazakhstan currently faces an identity crisis that places it at the junction of Russian, Chinese, and Western global ambitions. A former Soviet nation boasting the largest economy in Central Asia, Kazakhstan is considered a leader among Central Asian nations as the most militarily and politically developed country in the region. Due to its geography, Kazakhstan has served as a bridge between China and Russia as it grapples with its conflicting desire for independence, the West’s ambitions for liberalism in the region, and politico-economic pressures from its neighbors. Russia’s hegemonic influence over Kazakhstan has loomed particularly large since the onset of Putin’s war on Ukraine, which is all the more alarming given Kazakhstan’s continued trend toward authoritarianism and its leading status among Central Asian nations. 

Despite its position as a regional leader, Chinese and Russian hegemonic influence over Kazakhstan and Central Asia at large cannot be taken lightly by the West due to the region’s highly attractive trove of natural resources—such as uranium, gold, and coal—and politically strategic position in the center of Eurasia. Amid the persistent threat of hegemonic influence both in Kazakhstan and Eurasia at large, it is imperative that the United States take on an enhanced role in ensuring regional stability, counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influence, and supporting the development of a free market, and with it, Kazakhstan’s economic and political independence.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s development has been muddled by simultaneous independence from and convergence with Russia. Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan followed trends of linguistic and cultural “de-Russification” after the 1991 collapse, with the Kazakh people growing to the status of an ethnic majority by the new millennium. Growing support for the Kazakh language has symbolized a popular form of political resistance from Russian supremacy after 1991, continuing throughout Russia’s war in Ukraine.

And yet, while Kazakh cultural trends point toward the pursuit of independence, the nation’s political attitude toward Russia tells a different story. Kazakhstan’s response to the war in Ukraine and its slide toward authoritarianism present a startling prospect for the trajectory of Russian influence over Central Asia. Polling conducted in April 2022 reveals that 39% of Kazakhstan’s population support Russia in its invasion efforts and 46% adopt a neutral stance, compared to a mere 10% in support of Ukraine. Diplomatic engagements reflect as much: Kazakhstan heavily relied on the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to suppress domestic dissent in 2022. Moreover, since the beginning of the invasion, Kazakhstan has strengthened its dependence on Russian exports like oil and food products, further skimming the odds of decoupling. Understandably, Kazakhstan’s economic dependence and fears of being invaded like Ukraine preclude the nation from pursuing an entirely independent foreign policy, continuing a close bilateral relationship with Moscow—notwithstanding lingering cultural ties to Moscow from decades of post-Soviet influence.

By most metrics, the situation looks bleak. Russian influence, in addition to a lack of action against illiberalism on the part of foreign democratic nations, perpetuates Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to Russian dominance. Persistent human rights abuses and restrictions on freedoms of expression, assembly, and association have worsened over time. Political reforms are failing to address systemic causes of abuse, such as impunity for excessive force and torture, widespread violence against women, and restrictions on political activism and independent journalism. These illiberal practices echo Russian autocracy and can only be countered with foreign support.

But in the growth of the Kazakh language, there is a promising cultural foundation for a shift away from Russia. 

Kazakhstan provides humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the nation is an active member of the United Nations, accepting partnerships from both Eastern and Western nations and serving as a “middle power” in the international conflict between the US and Russia. Moreover, maintaining economic and political ties with Russia has proven increasingly dangerous for Kazakhstan amid the war. Bold Western sanctions on Russia have begun to damage the Russian reliability that has compelled Kazakhstan to side with the hegemon for decades. Now, Kazakhstan has increasingly turned to trading partners like China, which sees the war as an opportunity to secure its economic gains in Central Asia and advance Kazakhstan’s reliance on China.

While strengthening ties between Kazakhstan and China would continue to weaken Russia’s economic stronghold in Central Asia, it would present another imperial challenge to the West: the advancement of China’s geoeconomic leverage against the United States. Central Asia is a critical source of rare earth minerals useful in emerging green technologies, a resource China can further monopolize and effectively cut off from the West, as they have already done in Africa. Above all, China’s lack of political freedoms directly opposes the United States’ liberal values in its foreign policy, imbuing this fight with ideological as well as economic stakes. If Kazakhstan is forced to choose between strengthening its ties only with China or Russia, the nation may inevitably continue its descent into illiberal autocracy. 

Thus, while the United States and other Western entities continue to ignore Central Asia in their foreign policy, now is the time for the United States to finally invest in the region. Fortunately, the West’s demonstrated competence in its opposition to the Russian military effort has made the prospect of implementing liberal political reforms in Kazakh society increasingly attractive to President Tokayev. Furthermore, the president’s commitment to Kazakhstan’s strategic ambiguity keeps the door open to Western engagement in the region. If the West acts on these signals, the Kazakh government can prevent its transfer from the imperial orbit of one hegemon—Russia—to that of another—China. 

So, what should be done? A significant step in promoting Kazakhstan’s independence and Central Asian political and economic growth at large involves repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a 1974 provision that was originally designed to help Soviet-Jewish émigrés but continues to serve as a barrier to direct U.S.-Kazakhstan trade by prohibiting trade relations between the U.S. and most non-market economies. Eliminating this amendment would not only help Kazakhstan and its neighbors obtain greater economic stability and freedom but provide the United States with access to Central Asian resources and a bypass for its allies’ reliance on Russian oil. 

Of course, legitimate concerns have been raised about American involvement in Central Asia escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia to the extent that the world is brought to the brink of global war. However, Western support does not need to manifest as overtly military or direct confrontation. Instead, strategic engagement—focusing on economic partnerships and diplomatic exchanges—can strengthen Kazakhstan's sovereignty and resilience without crossing red lines that provoke Russia. The United States must also remain cognizant of the distinctions it makes in its foreign policy towards Russia versus Kazakhstan, such as refraining from imposing sanctions on Kazakhstan for its export of dual-use goods to Russia so as not to push the nation closer to Moscow and Beijing.

While international crises like the war in Ukraine and the United States’ trade war with China appear more urgent for the nation to address, it is imperative that the U.S. acknowledge Kazakhstan’s instrumental role as a neighbor to major global powers and economic, political, and security threats to global liberal democracy. Kazakhstan is a vital piece in the complex geopolitical puzzle that is great power competition. The United States must diplomatically and economically invest itself in Kazakhstan before it is too late.

Alisa Gulyansky (CC ‘28) is a first-year student at Columbia College looking to pursue a major in political science-statistics.